Super Bowl Thoughts

[Cross-posted at Independent Country]

Apparently, Bruce Springsteen has a new CD. I won't begrudge him playing the first single at the Super Bowl halftime show, whatever it is. But he has two choices after that:

a) be a nostalgia act, playing "Born in the USA" and "Born to Run." Or perhaps "Glory Days" and "Hungry Heart." In other words - and with all due respect to these songs - he could be lame in the sense of giving the crowd what he thinks they want to hear, as opposed to what he wants to perform..
b) be a great rock & roll act and make the halftime show entertaining. In this instance, I'd suggest a medley of "Tenth Avenue Freeze Out" transitioning to "Blinded By the Light" (which will wake up a large segment of the audience that doesn't even know it's a Springsteen song.) But if I had to choose, I'd pull out all the stops with a rendition of "Rosalita" that goes on as long as time allows.

As for the game, you can tell who the underdog is by the word "if." A year ago it was, "if the Giants can get to Tom Brady, they have a chance." Which means, the Patriots are presumably the better team, but this one thing may turn the tide for the Giants.

If the Steelers and Cardinals each played their normal game, each doing what they do well, the Steelers look like the favorite. That's because there's no "if's" about them; if they play well, they should win. The "ifs" fall on the Cardinals. If there is more than one "if," the bleaker it looks for the Cards, because it means lots of things have to go right for them. But at the end of the day, I think only one "if' matters: how well Kurt Warner responds to the Steelers' packages of disguised blitzes. If he can make accurate throws, it's a close game. And NOBODY knows whether this will happen or not.

The problem with predictions even less than 72 hours before kickoff is that no one knows what might happen to one of the teams, such as a drug overdose, an arrest, or a disappearance, on the eve of the game. That may be a demoralizing force, and will especially be so if it happens with the Cardinals, the team that's "happy to be here" with "nothing to lose." But there's little reason to believe this will happen. Teams have learned from the Bengals '89, Falcons '99, and Raiders '03.

The wild card is Ben Roethlisberger's nerves. History records him as a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, but he played terribly in that game three years ago, where the officiating was sub-par and seemed to work against the Seahawks. If Ben feels pressure to "redeem" himself by putting on an MVP performance, he might fold for that very reason.

I suspect that Warner will play well, that Roethlisberger may not play quite as well, and the Cards will eke out the victory. Or at least cover the seven-point spread.

The Exceptional Kurt Warner

By my count, there have been 52 quarterbacks who have started a Super Bowl.

17 have started two games. Of these, ten are in the Hall of Fame, and four are active.

10 have started three or more games. Of these, eight are in the Hall of Fame, with the other two active: Tom Brady and Kurt Warner.

Only five have gone to the Super Bowl under two or more coaches. Warner is the only one who has gone with three different head coaches.

Only two have gone with two different teams: Craig Morton and Warner.

Nine years separate Warner's first and last appearance. Only John Elway (12) saw a longer span between his first and last appearance. Eight years separate Joe Montana's first and last.

Most quarterbacks, even Hall of Famers, tend to have their greatest run of success under one head coach and one core nucleus of players.

Indeed, even among head coaches, onlyBill Cowher (10) Bill Parcells (10), Dan Reeves (12) and Don Shula (12) have a greater number of years between their first and last Super Bowls.

Warner certainly has had one of the most unusual careers in NFL history.

And Then There Were Two

As of this Monday, there will be four living ex-Presidents, but just two active NFL head coaches who have won a Super Bowl.

Cowher and Parcells retired two years ago.

Gibbs re-retired, and Billick was fired, one year ago.

Holmgren and Dungy resigned this year. Gruden and Shanahan were fired.

That leaves Bilichek and Coughlin.

But they will be joined by another in 16 days. And who knows, Shanahan and/or Gruden may have a new job by then.

The Schottenheimer Rule

This is my latest at the Partial Observer. Excerpt:

In all, Schottenheimer had 13 play-off appearances and just two losing season in 20 1/2 years as an NFL head coach. He may not have been a conference or league champion, but he was a winner, which couldn't be said of his replacements. . . .

It is rare that making a change, when things are going well, leads to long-term success.