What Did the Packers Owe Favre?

In 1998, Brett Favre was coming off his third consecutive MVP season. His team had gone 13-3 and to its second straight Super Bowl the year before.

Peyton Manning entered his rookie year for the Indianapolis Colts, who had gone 3-13.

From 1998 on, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning remarkably have started every game. Here are the results:

• Favre made 6 play-off appearences; Manning nine.
• Favre made 5 Pro Bowls; Manning nine.
• Favre won zero MVP's; Manning three.
• Favre won three play-off games; Manning seven.
• Favre got to and won zero Super Bowls; Manning got to one and won.
• Favre threw 282 touchdowns; Manning 333
  
• Favre threw 215 interceptions; Manning 165
  
• Favre went 106-70; Manning went 117-59
• Favre had a passer rating of 85 or better six times; Manning had a rating of 95 or better six times (Favre just once), and of 85 or better nine times.

If we throw out the first year, 1998, Manning looks even better compared to Favre. And let's not forget Favre was outplayed on the Frozen Tundra in play-off games by Michael Vick and Eli Manning.

Donovan McNabb came into the League in 1999. His worst year for throwing interceptions equals Favre's career best. (Career interception percentage for McNabb: 2.1; Favre: 3.3)

I don't know if McNabb is a Hall of Fame quarterback. Indeed, trade rumors have swirled around him for years. And he's won a heck of a lot more play-off games in his first ten seasons in the league than Favre did in his last ten in Green Bay. Indeed, the oft-benched Kurt Warner has more meaningful accomplishments in the last ten years than Favre, and he's no lock for the Hall either.

Here's what it comes down to with Favre: when he entered the League, it had Young, Aikman, Moon, Kelly, Marino, and Elway. And from 1994-2007 he was playing better than these six Hall of Famers.

But just when he was entering his prime years, his production fell off. He started throwing more interceptions again. This decade, he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Warner and McNabb, along with Garcia, Hasselbeck, and Brees. But nowhere near the same breath as Manning and Tom Brady, the only current sure-fire Hall of Fame quarterbacks (although the younger class beginning with Eli Manning, Big Ben, and Rivers may join them).

In Favre's last eleven years, and last ten at Green Bay, he has been good, not great. He hasn't played like a Hall of Famer. And it raises the question: what did the Packers owe Favre?

He resented that he had to go to mini-camp on his daughter's graduation day. That's why you're paid several millions a year.

He was unhappy the Packers didn't sign Randy Moss in 2007. Though you had your best year in the last ten without him, and so did the team.

He retired, then was shocked that by training camp the Packers had made plans to go in a different direction. Even so, they still gave him the opportunity to start. His unfounded bitterness toward the organization forced a trade.

Hey Brett, if you had consistently played closer to the level you had played in your younger years, and if you hadn't retired, the Packers would have been more enthusiastic to bring you back. But the Packers didn't owe you any greater courtesy and deference than the Eagles owe McNabb.

Whatever goes inside your head to now "get revenge" on the Packers is probably the same area of the brain that causes you to throw up bone-headed interceptions.

Get over it.

If you want to continue to play, you shouldn't have retired from the Jets. And if you want to just get back at the Packers, grow up already!

Super Bowl Thoughts

[Cross-posted at Independent Country]

Apparently, Bruce Springsteen has a new CD. I won't begrudge him playing the first single at the Super Bowl halftime show, whatever it is. But he has two choices after that:

a) be a nostalgia act, playing "Born in the USA" and "Born to Run." Or perhaps "Glory Days" and "Hungry Heart." In other words - and with all due respect to these songs - he could be lame in the sense of giving the crowd what he thinks they want to hear, as opposed to what he wants to perform..
b) be a great rock & roll act and make the halftime show entertaining. In this instance, I'd suggest a medley of "Tenth Avenue Freeze Out" transitioning to "Blinded By the Light" (which will wake up a large segment of the audience that doesn't even know it's a Springsteen song.) But if I had to choose, I'd pull out all the stops with a rendition of "Rosalita" that goes on as long as time allows.

As for the game, you can tell who the underdog is by the word "if." A year ago it was, "if the Giants can get to Tom Brady, they have a chance." Which means, the Patriots are presumably the better team, but this one thing may turn the tide for the Giants.

If the Steelers and Cardinals each played their normal game, each doing what they do well, the Steelers look like the favorite. That's because there's no "if's" about them; if they play well, they should win. The "ifs" fall on the Cardinals. If there is more than one "if," the bleaker it looks for the Cards, because it means lots of things have to go right for them. But at the end of the day, I think only one "if' matters: how well Kurt Warner responds to the Steelers' packages of disguised blitzes. If he can make accurate throws, it's a close game. And NOBODY knows whether this will happen or not.

The problem with predictions even less than 72 hours before kickoff is that no one knows what might happen to one of the teams, such as a drug overdose, an arrest, or a disappearance, on the eve of the game. That may be a demoralizing force, and will especially be so if it happens with the Cardinals, the team that's "happy to be here" with "nothing to lose." But there's little reason to believe this will happen. Teams have learned from the Bengals '89, Falcons '99, and Raiders '03.

The wild card is Ben Roethlisberger's nerves. History records him as a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, but he played terribly in that game three years ago, where the officiating was sub-par and seemed to work against the Seahawks. If Ben feels pressure to "redeem" himself by putting on an MVP performance, he might fold for that very reason.

I suspect that Warner will play well, that Roethlisberger may not play quite as well, and the Cards will eke out the victory. Or at least cover the seven-point spread.

The Exceptional Kurt Warner

By my count, there have been 52 quarterbacks who have started a Super Bowl.

17 have started two games. Of these, ten are in the Hall of Fame, and four are active.

10 have started three or more games. Of these, eight are in the Hall of Fame, with the other two active: Tom Brady and Kurt Warner.

Only five have gone to the Super Bowl under two or more coaches. Warner is the only one who has gone with three different head coaches.

Only two have gone with two different teams: Craig Morton and Warner.

Nine years separate Warner's first and last appearance. Only John Elway (12) saw a longer span between his first and last appearance. Eight years separate Joe Montana's first and last.

Most quarterbacks, even Hall of Famers, tend to have their greatest run of success under one head coach and one core nucleus of players.

Indeed, even among head coaches, onlyBill Cowher (10) Bill Parcells (10), Dan Reeves (12) and Don Shula (12) have a greater number of years between their first and last Super Bowls.

Warner certainly has had one of the most unusual careers in NFL history.