On Passer Rating

One of my regrets over the past two years is that I should have blogged here. So here goes . . .

I predict that the San Diego Chargers will defeat the Denver Broncos this Sunday and win the 2008 AFC West Title.

The reason? Phillip Rivers.

His passer rating is 104.0. It is unlikely to dip under 100 for the season.

And in ten previous seasons (1998-2007), all twenty teams who had a qualifying quarterback with a rating of 100 or more made the play-offs. Rivers is the only qb with a 100+ rating this year.

A rating of 100 means the passing game is so efficient that it can overcome other team weaknesses. The worst team with a 100+ passer was the 2004 Vikings, who at 8-8 still made the playoffs. From 98-07, these teams averaged 12 wins.

To buttress my case, over the same period 67 quarterbacks had a rating of 90 or better, and 54 led their teams to the play-offs. Only six had a losing season. This year, entering the last week, 11 qb's have a rating of 89 or better; 8 are going to the playoffs (or at least have ten wins) and only one, Aaron Rogers (91.8) is guaranteed a losing season. (Matt Schaub is at 89.7 and might have a losing season; he also might not reach 90.)

Denver qb Jay Cutler's rating is 87, 17 points behind Rivers.

The trend is the same year in and year out. There may be a few ratings leaders who don't make the playoffs, and some quarterbacks with average ratings lead their team to the playoffs. But for the most part, the ratings leaders are also the playoff qbs, and the higher the rating (like Rivers's), the more likely this is the case.

One last example: When Brett Favre's rating has been under 90, he's gone to the playoffs once in six seasons; when he's over 90, he's gone all eleven times. (This year, he's at 84 and the odds aren't good.)

Whatever the merits of the passer rating as it is currently calculated, there's one thing going for it: it strongly reflects team success. And this, in turn, suggests that a poised, smart, accurate quarterback is the most precious asset in the league.