When to throw an interception

Not all turnovers are equally bad. The time to get picked off is when the interception would work as well or better than a punt.

This means third-and-long between between your own 40 and the opponent's 35 (or whatever is just outside the field goal range of your kicker). If you're near your own 40, go for the longest pass play in your playbook. If you're in your opponent's territory, go for a play where your receiver would catch the ball within the ten yard-line, but not in the end-zone.

The options are:
1. big gain, possible touchdown
2. incomplete pass, punt on fourth down with probable touchback
3. interception inside your opponent's ten.

I'm not saying an interception would be good. I'm just saying that's the best possible time for a high-risk play. It's not a costly one on your in your own territory or at midfield, and it's not a demoralizing as it is when you are in scoring range. It's a case, rather, where your drive has already stalled, and you might as well swing for the fences because you have nothing else to lose.