Great Teams Are Good Teams With Great Players

Michael Lewis's Moneyball answers the question of how the Oakland A's win a lot of games every year despite a low payroll.

But they haven't gone to the World Series.

I think it's because the A's acquire players that give them statistical advantages, particularly against average and below-average teams. Although I don't follow baseball closely, I could theorize why the A's fail in the play-offs.

1. GM Billy Beane frowns on steals and sacrifices, believing that a team built on "small ball" won't go far.The focus is on on-base and slugging. But in the play-offs, where the pitching is superior, the "little things" are the difference betweeen victory and defeat.
2. Because of the A's low payroll, the A's can't afford great players, and great teams are good teams with great players.

Because of revenue sharing and the salary cap, NFL teams don't have the obstacles that teams like the A's face. Many teams over the years have, like the A's, sought to play the percentages. A disciplined, conservative team that doesn't turn the ball over or commit penalties will win a lot of games - and make quick exits in the play-offs. Ask Chuck Knox. But teams can still be conservative on offense and win the Super Bowls, but only if they have an aggressive defense. And a defense can be aggressive only if it has great players.

If you make predictions going into the play-offs, favor teams with great defenses. That doesn't mean favor teams that lead in defensive statistics, but rather teams whose defenses scare the heck out of you. They will likely be defenses that are
a) solid all-around,
b) with great individual players.

If when picking a play-off game, both defenses scare the heck out of you (or if neither defense scares the heck out of you), only then should you look to the offenses. And, again, don't favor the team whose offense leads statistically, but rather the offense that scares the heck out of you.

A "scary" offense doesn't need a lot of pizzazz. It can be quite conservative. Truly, the scariest offense is one that
a) runs the ball well, and
b) is most capable of converting any third down between one and fifteen yards.

In other words, it has a great qb-rb-wr combination.

This advice applies only to the play-offs. Picking games between successful teams on Any Given Sunday in the regular season is more of a roll of the dice.