Aikman and the Top 8

The final Aikman's Efficiency Ratings were released this past week. I like the philosophy and methodology behind them (described in the link). They better measure the overall effectiveness of offenses and defenses.

But do they matter? Evidence from this year suggests yes. In the combined ratings (offense + defense) list, seven of the top nine teams won their division - and all the division winners are still in the play-offs, all the wildcards being eliminated. Jacksonville at 8-8 ranked fourth, suggesting Jacksonville does have the players (they were 12-4 last year), and Dallas edged out New Orleans to rank eighth. The Jets were the only ten-win team not in the Top Ten (#18) and injury-plagued Seattle at #20 was the only division champ not in the top ten. Of the other play-off teams, Kansaas City was #14 and the Giants #19.

It may sound surprising for play-off teams to be ranked that low, but we must remember that 20 teams finished 8-8 or better, and Seattle was only 9-7. Also, astonishing performances, like 6-10's Minnesota's run defense, could give them several more points than one would otherwise expect, and in any case only ten points separates the #20 team from the #9 team. It should also be noted that the four teams with the worst records had the four bottom slots.

So the Aikman Efficiency Rankings don't tell the whole story, but they tell a lot of the story.