Is He Worth It?

ESPN's Colin Cowherd is critical of Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, saying things like "Yes, he's won 76% of his games, but he should be winning 86%." Maybe he's right. If one's name is never mentioned as a possible candidate for an NFL job, never in the rumor mill for another, higher-paying college job, and never thought of as a coach fans of other schools would like to have, then one is probably not a great coach.

But even if Michigan fans want a better coach, can they risk getting someone worse? Under Carr, Michigan has five Big Ten Championships (including two co-championships), five BCS Bowl bids, six ten-win seasons, and their first national championship in fifty years.

The only way to get someone better is to get a "name" coach with a proven record. This means overpaying him, abandoning the sense of continuity of the program, and diminishing its classy reputation somewhat. Otherwise one is rolling the dice and may get someone worse than Carr. If the program starts getting 7-5, 6-6 records and falls to the middle of the Big Ten pack, I could see letting him go. But right now, Michigan can't afford it.

Here's something to think about. In 1995, the Michigan job fell into Carr's lap after Gary Moeller was fired in the spring. the same year Nick Saban took the job at Michigan St. The young Saban had NFL credentials; Carr was a Michigan lifer. In the five years they recruited against each other in the Big Ten, Saban went 34-28-1; 23-19-1 in the Big Ten. Carr went 49-13; 31-6 in the Big Ten.

Saban is considered a genius because he finally got things going at MSU in his fifth year, going 9-2, same as Carr. But then Saban quit MSU and the program quickly slid back into its proper place.

Yes, Saban faired better at LSU, inheriting Gerry DiNardo's highly-regarded recruits, bringing the program back to prominence and going 48-16 in five years with a national championship. But then he had a disappointing two-year run with the Miami Dolphins.

Is Saban really such a great genius, someone who can really turn around a program quickly? Alabama is betting $36 million (over eight years) that he can. One wonders if anybody is worth that in college football. It's like when A-Rod's originally signed for $25 million a year: yes, he's a great player (and yes, Saban's a good coach), but come on! What are they thinking?

But as Cowherd says, in four years, when NFL head coaching salaries are up to $8 million, Saban will be gone.