Kicking Themselves

If my count is correct, there were 126 NFL games between teams that finished .500 or better and teams that finished below.500. Not surprisingly, .500+ teams won 96 of those contests and lost 30.

Several of the 8-8 and 9-7 teams were disappointments. I was curious if playing poorly against losing teams had an effect on their season. Just one, two, or three more wins could have made the difference between missing the play-offs and winning a division:

Pittsburgh: 8-8 overall, 3-2 against losing teams.
Bengals: 8-8 overall, 3-2 against losers.
Jacksonville: 8-8, 1-4 against teams with losing records. That means they were a respectable 7-4 against the better teams. Two losses to Houston especially hurt them.
Panthers: 8-8, 4-3 against losers.
Seahawks: 9-7, 3-4 against losing teams. This cost them a first-round bye.
Giants: 8-8; 5-0 against losing teams. Sure, they shouldn't have played so poorly in the second half, but at least they didn't under-achieve against weak teams.
Bronocs: 9-7, 4-0 against losing teams. Their season of regret at least didn't include losses to the likes of Oakland.

The Bears and Jets had the most games against losing teams. The Bears were 8-1 in them, the Jets 7-2.

Green Bay, which went 8-8, went 7-1 against the losers (losing only to 7-9 Buffalo via turnovers), and generally controlled the line of scrimmage against them. The Pack went just 1-7 against .500 or better clubs, and most of those games weren't even close. 8-8 sounds about right for them.

The Ravens (6-0) and Chargers (5-0) were, along with the aformentioned Giants and Broncos, the only teams undefeated against sub-.500 teams. (The Patriots were 6-1 and the Colts were 4-1.)

The best evidence of a great team is beating the teams they should beat, and usually winning against the better teams. No wonder the Chargers are the favorites.