On Field Position

How important is field position? I looked at week 14. The numbers are rough (they don't add up exactly), but close:

In the 16 NFL games last week, there were 358 drives, leading to

-74 TD's
-42 FG's
-49 turnovers
-15 turover on downs downs
-11 missed FG's
-132 punts

-12 drives ending at halftime
-14 drives ending at the end of the game (I may have miscounted half-ending and game-ending drives).

Of these, 38 drives began across the 50 - that is,in the opponent's territory. Three were game-enders by the winning team. Of the remaining 35:

- 26 ended in scores
- 4 turnovers
- 3 punts
- 1 turnover on downs
- 1 missed FG

Signifcantly, teams that began more drives in their opponent's territory went 12-1. No wonder: teams that begin drives inside their opponent's territory score at a rate of 75%, as opposed to 33% overall.

One interesting statistic is the number of plays that originated at or inside a team's own 20. There were about 117, of which 37 ended in scores. This is close to the overall scoring rate. The 15 turnovers from drives beginning in this territory is also close to the overall turnover rate.

This does not mean, however, that it makes no difference where a drive starts. Teams that found themselves at or inside their own 20 more often than their opponent, won just three games and lost nine. Since most drives end in a punt or turnover, you don't want your drive to stall in the shadow of your own goalposts. That just makes it easier for the other team to score. If you have to punt, better to punt at your 40 instead of your 20.

Although it is worse to begin near one's own end zone, there was one interesting, though not surprising, statistic. The team that scored more points in drives beginning at or inside their own 20 than their opponent did, went 10-4.

This is not surprising. The team that is able to put together a long drive ending in a touchdown, when the opponent is unable to put together a long drive, is obviously executing better that day.

• As we learned from week 13, teams that punt more, lose more games. And, the team with more turnovers loses almost all the time. Each time a team has a long drive ending in points, the likelihood of losing the turnover and punt battles are reduced.
• A long drive indicates that the running game is clicking. Teams that rush for more yards usually win.
• A long drive also indicates that the passing game is efficient. The team with more efficient passing (Yards Per Pass Play) usually wins.
• A long drive exhausts and demoralizes the opponent while it gives the team's own defense a longer rest.

Conclusion: Turnovers and field position are the most important factors in an NFLgame, but the team that can overcome bad field position with long, sustained drives ending in points is probably playing better that day and will be the likely winner.

At some point, I will look at more games from more weeks to see if the stats I looked at in weeks 13 and 14 were normal or aberrant