Third Down Efficiency

(Updated Tuesday, including Monday night's game)

In the Week 15 games the teams with a superior 3rd Down conversion rate went 11-5.

But when considering the total number of unconverted third downs, the team with the fewest went 12-3. Example: the Bears went 5 of 16 on third downs, and the Bucs were a slightly more efficient 6 of 18. But that translated to eleven unconverted third downs for the victorious Bears, and 12 for the losing Bucs.

The most dramatic example of this was the Titans-Jacksonville game. The Titans were a pathetic 0-8 on third downs; the Jags a remarkable 10-19. But the losing Jags had one more unconverted third down.

I'm not suggesting that this was the deciding factor of the game - three turnover returns for touchdowns is what gave the Titans the victory. But one thing leads to another.

The Rams shut out the Raiders despite being worse on third downs in both categories, but had a +5 turnover advantage. Indeed, the six teams that were -2 or worse in turnover margins were all losers, and they averaged just 10.5 points per game.

The team that won the turnover battle went 11-3. The three that lost the turnover battle but won the game were each only -1 in turnovers. Significantly, their third-down conversions were 7-15, 7-15, and 7-14; their opponents were 0-11, 2-12, and 2-13. Blowing too many third downs probably evens the turnovers out. Not to mention the fact that the three winners: the Ravens, Packers, and Jets, were clearly superior to their opponents: Browns, Lions, and Vikings.

The overall lesson? Don't get into third down situations, but if you do, convert them. And don't turn the ball over.